Seeing Around the Corner
by John Brewer
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Wouldn’t it be great if we could see around the corner, to posses that magical ability to anticipate what’s at the next intersection? On the road, we now have cars that can see around a corner, let you know what is ahead and prepare for any changes in conditions. You, the driver, are no longer limited by what you see straight ahead. With improved visibility, you quickly adjust and successfully navigate whatever the road throws your way.
Let’s take this analogy into the supply chain. The past few years have shown in dramatic fashion just how important it is to be flexible enough to adjust to changing customer demands. From sourcing to manufacturing, and distribution to retail locations, a sudden change in demand has far-reaching implications for the supply chain. Visibility into these changes helps us prepare and adjust as needed. These years may turn out to be an anomaly of sorts, or they may represent the new “normal” with increased demand and supply volatility. Important lessons can be learned as we move forward. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, we can see that many businesses didn’t properly anticipate the dramatic magnitude of change; many waited too long and then took drastic actions that impacted all inventory policies and all customer service goals. Some could even say knee-jerk. Inventories were slashed, cost cutting was the mantra and the result…inventory couldn’t meet demand and customer service levels began to decline…a loss of control.
We simply cannot afford this anymore. Competition is fierce. Cost cutting must be balanced with customer service. The key is to sense and respond to what is around the corner, what customer demand will be like for the next 6 – 18 months. The magic here…demand sensing.
When we talk about the ability to sense and respond to market changes it sounds almost mystical. To anticipate what is coming, to see into the future. To an extent, the mysticism is justified. Just how do you know what demand will be like in 6 – 18 months? Which of the many models is right for any particular situation? For example, the apparel industry may use a form of the Delphi model for pre-season forecasting where an electronics manufacturer may take a more historical approach to its forecast. Software can help remove the mystery and simplify which of the multiple methodologies available are best suited for arriving at the best answer. That is where the math comes in and where technology, like that available in Voyager Solutions, can help identify trends faster, respond quicker and drive better margins.
In reality, there is no single formula that will work for every situation, however, what is important is to understand that without the ability to see around the corner, you can get caught off guard and clear a lane for your competition to speed past you. Don’t let that happen.
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